Prediction Market IntelligenceSunday, March 29, 202670 active markets · $224M+ tracked
Recently updated
IRAN

The Iran Conflict

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran is the single largest cluster of prediction market activity. Over $100M in volume concentrated on conflict timelines, regime change, and the Strait of Hormuz.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$22.3M
No
81%
Yes
20%
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Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
$54.5M
No
99%
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$1.7M
Yes
68%
No
32%
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Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
$4.9M
No
90%
Yes
10%
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2028

2028 Presidential Race

Over $1.5B in combined volume on the 2028 race. JD Vance leads the Republican field while Gavin Newsom is the Democratic frontrunner — but wide-open fields mean high uncertainty.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$6.7M
No
83%
Yes
17%
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Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$882K
No
59%
Yes
42%
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Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$675K
Yes
59%
No
42%
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MIDTERMS

2026 Midterms

Control of the House and Senate hangs in the balance.

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$2.0M
No
85%
Yes
16%
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Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$631K
Yes
52%
No
49%
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Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$696K
No
52%
Yes
49%
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EXECUTIVE

Executive Branch

Markets on Trump approval, cabinet stability, and the Federal Reserve.

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
$641K
No
89%
Yes
11%
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Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
$404K
No
94%
Yes
7%
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Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
$6K
No
87%
Yes
13%
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TRADE

Trade War & Tariffs

The 10% blanket tariff is expected to remain. China tariffs have come down from 2025 highs.

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
$39K
No
96%
Yes
5%
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Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
$30K
No
89%
Yes
11%
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Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$324K
No
54%
Yes
47%
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LEGISLATION

Legislation

Key legislative priorities in Congress.

Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
$0
No
82%
Yes
18%
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Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
$1K
No
88%
Yes
13%
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Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?
$0
No
56%
Yes
44%
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ECONOMY

Economy

Recession odds, Fed rate decisions, and economic indicators.

Canada recession before 2027?
$52K
No
59%
Yes
42%
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Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
$2.6M
No
62%
Yes
38%
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Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
$868K
No
76%
Yes
25%
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PRIMARIES

State Primaries

Key gubernatorial and Senate primary races shaping the 2026 map.

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
$2.9M
No
71%
Yes
30%
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Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
$25K
Yes
51%
No
50%
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Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
$18K
No
86%
Yes
14%
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